Staying ahead in the financial markets requires a clear understanding of technical and fundamental trends. This week’s comprehensive analysis covers the USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and XAU/USD pairs, offering actionable insights and trade ideas. Additionally, we explore economic data and central bank actions shaping global markets.
Let’s dive into the week’s key levels, trend projections, and market outlook.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY H4 Analysis
Key Levels Identified
- Resistance: 153.900
- Support: 150.500
Trend Analysis
The USD/JPY pair trades within a bearish channel, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows. This trend indicates sellers’ dominance in the market.
- A potential bullish retracement could push the price upward toward the resistance level of 153.900. Such movements are often triggered by short-term profit-taking or temporary weakening in the yen’s strength.
- However, the overall trend remains bearish, with the price expected to resume its downward movement and test the support at 150.500.
Trade Ideas
- Short-Term Buy Opportunity: If the price holds above current levels, traders can consider entering a retracement trade targeting 153.900. Monitor momentum indicators like RSI or stochastic to confirm a potential reversal.
- Sell Confirmation: The primary focus should remain on short positions. Wait for rejection at the 153.900 resistance level or a break below the channel’s lower boundary. These scenarios present substantial selling opportunities, aiming for the 150.500 support zone.
EUR/USD H4 Analysis
Key Levels
- Resistance: 1.04300
- Support: 1.02600
Bearish Channel Insights
EUR/USD continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel, reflecting a persistent bearish trend. The pair forms lower and lower highs, a classic signal of seller dominance.
- A short-term bullish retracement is likely, targeting the resistance level of 1.04300.
- After the retracement, the pair is expected to resume its decline, with a target near the support zone of 1.02600.
Trade Strategy
- Buy Setup: If the price retraces, traders may consider short-term buy trades toward the 1.04300 resistance. Use trailing stops to protect gains as the bearish pressure remains dominant.
- Sell Opportunities: A rejection near the resistance or a confirmed breakdown below intermediate support levels could signal a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.02600.
XAU/USD H4 Analysis
Trend and Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) shows bullish momentum, trading within an ascending channel. This structure highlights the metal’s attractiveness amid ongoing market uncertainties.
- Recent corrections indicate a potential short-term bearish retracement, with the price likely revisiting the 2685.00 support level.
- However, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by the price’s ability to bounce back from crucial support zones.
Outlook
- Bearish Retracement: If bearish pressure persists, a revisit to the 2685.00 support is possible. Monitor this level for buying opportunities.
- Bullish Continuation: A rebound from 2685.00 could propel prices toward the 2730.00 resistance, continuing the broader uptrend.
Trade Tips
- For bulls, focus on buying near support levels within the channel.
- For bears, short-term selling opportunities may arise during retracements.
Weekly Fundamental Analysis
Japan: Inflation and Growth Data
Japan’s inflation data remains a focal point for global traders. Tokyo’s October CPI stood at 1.8%, matching the year’s lows, while the national CPI was slightly higher at 2.3%.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has determined to normalize monetary policy. Although growth remains tepid, with Q3 GDP expanding by just 0.2%, prospects for Q4 look brighter. Key releases this week include October’s employment figures, retail sales, and industrial production, which will shed light on the economy’s resilience.
Australia: Hawkish Policy Outlook
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is among the most hawkish central banks globally, and this stance has impacted the AUD’s performance.
- October CPI data, expected on November 27, may reinforce the RBA’s tight monetary policy.
- Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely announce another 50-basis-point rate cut, highlighting divergent regional policy approaches.
Eurozone: CPI Expectations
Preliminary November CPI figures this week could shift market expectations about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next moves.
- The market is pricing significant rate cuts through 2025, reflecting concerns about weak economic growth and inflationary pressures.
- Traders should watch closely for deviations from forecasts, which could significantly impact the EUR/USD.
United Kingdom: Weakening Economy
The UK economy continues to disappoint, with October retail sales falling sharply and PMI readings slipping below 50.
- The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to maintain rates soon, with a possible rate cut in early 2025.
- Light economic data this week makes it unlikely for the GBP to experience major moves unless unexpected developments arise.
Canada: GDP and CPI Watch
September GDP and Q3 growth data are key for traders following the CAD. After stagnating in August, a slight improvement is expected.
- October CPI upticks may discourage speculation of a significant rate cut during the Bank of Canada’s December meeting.
United States: Election Impacts and FOMC Outlook
The market is assessing the impact of Republican electoral victories on fiscal and monetary policy.
- Investors are particularly focused on the December FOMC meeting. While a rate cut is less likely now, the release of FOMC minutes this week could clarify the Federal Reserve’s future moves.
Actionable Insights for Vestrado Users
At Vestrado, we are committed to helping traders stay informed and make confident decisions. Our technical and fundamental analysis highlights key market trends and opportunities, enabling you to act strategically.
Key Recommendations
- Monitor USD/JPY for potential retracement opportunities to the 153.900 level before shorting.
- Look for rejection near resistance levels in EUR/USD to capitalize on its bearish trend.
- For XAU/USD, buying near support levels within the ascending channel offers favorable risk-reward ratios.
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This week’s technical and fundamental analysis provides critical insights into USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and XAU/USD, equipping traders with actionable strategies. As global markets remain dynamic, aligning your trades with key trends and data is essential.
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